New research say the Hudson Valley faces many challenges in next decade

The Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress’ findings of a year-long, wide-ranging study reveal the mid-Hudson Valley is sitting on a “demographic cliff” affecting the region’s socio-economic composition.

The “Out of Alignment” research project, which covers Orange, Putnam, Dutchess, Ulster, Sullivan, Greene and Columbia counties, looks at various regional trends, including flat population growth, declining school enrollment, stagnant wages, the shrinking labor force and the rising cost of living. It also looks at what these trends mean for the region in the next decade.

“Ten years after the Great Recession, we find a regional economy that is out of alignment with its demographics,” said Pattern President and CEO Jonathan Drapkin in a statement. “Our population growth is flat, which impacts not just our schools but also the home-grown labor force. Many high-paying jobs that existed before the Great Recession have been replaced by low-wage alternatives that make it difficult to raise a family here. This gives young people a cause to leave the area. At the same time, we are becoming older as a region, but our economy is not geared toward this reality.”

Despite flat population growth, Orange County grew the most between 2010 and 2017, with Kiryas Joel accounting for 51 percent of that growth. Kiryas Joel’s population in 2000 was 13,138; and 22,794 in 2017 - a 73.5 percent increase.

Additional findings include:

:• The number of births in each county has also fallen over the last decade, and deaths outpace births in Ulster, Columbia and Greene counties. The region’s fertility rate of 1.76 is much lower than the replacement rate of 2.1. The trend line is expected to worsen in the coming years. These changes are occurring even as the region continues to age at a faster rate. In six of the seven counties, residents 55 and older make up 30 percent or more of the population. That number is expected to rise to 35 percent by 2030.

• Of the 65 school districts in the study area, only seven have seen an increase in enrollment since 2000. The region has 26,485 fewer students since 2000, or a loss of 14.5 percent of its students. Districts spend an average of $28,264 on educating each student, among the highest cost in the nation. However, in the 2017-2018 school year, only 38 percent of eighth-graders in the region were considered proficient in ELA and only 15 percent made the cut in math, according to the study. The region will lose an additional 20,571 students by 2028 and per pupil spending is projected to climb to $39,686.

• Though median household incomes appear to have risen in all seven counties between 2010 and 2017, they actually show a decrease in every county except Greene when the numbers are adjusted for inflation. Lower income households have experienced the sharpest drop in income while the top 20 percent, have seen their income rise. And while average poverty rates in the region have increased only marginally (11.29 percent in 2017 from 11.01 percent in 2010), 31 percent of households with employed individuals who are above the federal poverty are living paycheck to paycheck. Part of the reason is that a fundamental shift has occurred in the region’s employment composition post 2008.

• The Mid-Hudson Valley’s proximity to New York City makes the cost of necessities like housing, food, childcare, transportation and healthcare higher. This places the region at a competitive disadvantage with mid-sized cities in the south that draw workers with better opportunities and lower cost of living.

The high cost of living and housing is one of the reasons younger residents are leaving the region and why nearly half of the study area’s adults 18-34 live at home with their parents. The national average is 34 percent.

“As grave as these challenges are," Drapkin added, "they provide us an opportunity to collaborate and develop strategies to modify our economy so that we can bring the region back into alignment in the coming decade."

The report’s full version is available online at https://www.hvoutofalignment.com.

- Nancy Kriz