My turn First Due Weather from the Compound Monroe's weather blog: 'Knowing about potential events with some notice is better than a last moment surprise'

11 Jul 2019 | 05:14

    Editor's Note: The Photo News regularly speaks with First Due Weather from The Compound when hyperlocal weather stories are useful to readers. The Facebook site recently recorded its 10,000th follower in only 24 months' time, which is a significant number for a hyperlocal social media page. Its sole weather forecaster asks to remain publicly anonymous, though this person's identity is known to many. We appreciate FDW's partnership with the paper and share this updated note to FDW followers:

    Welcome to all our recent new followers.
    I am specifically a winter-weather enthusiast but have recently evolved into a year round broadcast. My page provides the latest weather intel for the latest weather conditions expected for the Monroe area and all of Orange County. I report directly from my weather lab located at "The Compound," my home in Monroe.
    Typically my forecast will also cover locations adjacent to the Orange County area, too.
    This is my fourth or fifth season sharing weather intel and my FB page, First Due Weather, is approaching its second birthday.
    I try very hard to help everyone understand how I display info on the page. Sometimes I fail to realize we have so many new followers to catch up.
    Basically, for Winter, I share all the imperative weather models interpretation for our events so all the followers can see how events evolve from day to day or even hour to hour.
    By sharing the intel, it shows how complex an event could be with each model having its own story and ideas.
    The information I share isn’t typically reported by the news or many other websites or pages.
    Sometimes the weather intel I share isn’t picked up by others until several days later. That’s what makes this page different.
    I just don’t typically throw out a daily forecast during the Winter on my page. I try to help everyone understand what is actually occurring as the event evolves.
    Should confidence grow about an event, I issue a forecast.
    When confidence in an event declines or disappears, I share with us to forget about it and move on to the next event.
    Typically, a forecast for an event cannot even be determined until less than three days away from the event.
    Weather is always changing.
    Outside of Winter, unless something interesting or urgent develops, I just provide a daily forecast for the day and the next several days ahead after quickly glancing at specifically the EURO, the ECMWF model.
    Significant potential events will always have a review of multiple resources, including mesoscale and long range models and several ensembles.
    This weather page is actually just a hobby I focus on specifically during the Winter in effort to get the word out as many times our area is forgotten about by the NYC weather stations and other more significant outlets.
    The sharing of information about an event in a timely manner and obtaining the results I suggested is the only satisfaction I require from myself. It is the only reason why I post what I post.
    Remember, just because I mention or discuss events for extended periods it doesn’t mean they are etched in stone.
    Knowing about potential events with some notice is better than a last moment surprise.
    The page is almost like a weather blog. A clearing house for weather data.
    Overall, I believe I have a fairly decent success rate, but nobody is perfect and sometimes, maybe even the next event, I may get it wrong.
    One last share, many of my successful Winter forecasts are nothing merely more than looking at my two favorite models, the EURO and the NAM, especially when they somewhat agree about an event.
    In the past I have just blended their runs together with about a 50/50 weight and put a forecast together from those results. It typically works well for Orange County.
    The new GFS model(formerly the FV3), not liked by many forecasters, also performed well last Winter for Orange County. This model is the newest state of the art technology that replaced the GFS legacy model during June 2019 as the official American model.
    Don’t forget to like and follow this weather page.
    Thanks for following. Keep watching.
    First Due Weather from the Compound