First Due Weather issues 2018-19 winter forecast
Get ready: Much snow and cold temperatures are projected for this winter season


The greater Monroe area may have its first, fairly respectable snowfall by Friday morning, Nov. 16, according to the prognostication from “First Due Weather from the Compound,” the hyperlocal Facebook page which was spot on with its snow forecasts last winter. FDW has issued its 2018-19 winter forecast: "A colder than average winter season with above average snowfall."

By the time The Photo News is in your mailbox today, Nov. 16, the greater Monroe area may have had its first, fairly respectable snowfall.
That prognostication came from “First Due Weather from the Compound,” the hyperlocal Facebook page which - to the delight of snowplow service providers - was spot on with its snow forecasts for last winter season.
FDW has issued its 2018-19 winter “FDW Forecast,” which local residents will probably consider more reliable than the Farmers Almanac.
“Many weather experts agree, and are alluding to a colder than average winter season with above average snowfall,” FDW wrote on its Facebook page. “While it is still only November … we will be experiencing some extremely below normal temperatures for mid-November. It will be followed by a warm-up and then cold snap again into December.”
Moderating temps will forestall a white Christmas but then ...FDW said December could see some snow events during the first two-thirds of the month, but a white Christmas may not be likely this year as temperatures are expected to moderate during the end of the year.
“By mid January at the latest, we will be in the cold with the snow machine in full operation,” FDW wrote. “ February is expected to be well above average, with snow events and the snowiest month of the season and March, will likely be snowy too, but hopefully not as severe as last year.”
El Niño ModokiA Super El Niño, also referred to as a El Niño Modoki is expected to develop, according to FDW. It differentiates from the common El Niño, because a Modoki develops in the central Pacific Ocean, rather than the eastern Pacific Ocean.
A Modoki favors a colder winter on the East Coast as compared to a typical El Niño, which usually favors warmer temperatures on the East Coast.
Additionally, October and November snow coverage over areas of Canada, Europe and Asia suggest colder temperatures for the East Coast.
Nor’easters and blizzards in FebruaryIt currently appears it may be colder than average this year. Other factors including the trending toward negative oscillations are also contributing to this belief, FDW explained.
“I have read that the UKMET/ECMWF anomalies for the long range forecast are indicating above average snowfall for December,” FDW said on its Facebook page. “February snowfall is expected to be well above average. The anticipated location of the jet stream will keep our area close to the polar vortex and will create the potential for a record amount of Nor’easter type storms to develop additionally creating potential for above average blizzard development. It’s always fun, as a snow enthusiast, to read about potential for Nor’easters and blizzards.”
As much as 72 inches of snowFDW also said meteorology professionals suggest a one to three degree lower than average air temperature this winter, with snowfall at about 133 percent to 150 percent - which would equate to somewhere between 63 to 72 inches of snowfall for the season.
Last winter, the greater Monroe area received nearly 95 inches of snow, with most of that occurring during March.
The annual average snowfall is about 48 inches, of snow, according to FDW.
“A reasonable comparison winter with a similar set-up for what is anticipated was the winter of 2002-2003,” FDW added. “During that winter we received four big storms and many smaller events. The big events occurred during the first week of December, Christmas, President’s weekend in February, and a late one during the second week of April.
"It was a long winter, and this upcoming snow season may be just as long.”
So … what does all this mean?
For FDW, it’s simply two words: “Keep watching.”
- Nancy Kriz